False-positive psychology: Undisclosed flexibility in data collection and analysis allows presenting anything as significant

JP Simmons, LD Nelson… - Psychological …, 2011 - journals.sagepub.com
Psychological science, 2011journals.sagepub.com
In this article, we accomplish two things. First, we show that despite empirical psychologists'
nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings (≤. 05), flexibility in data
collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false-positive rates. In many
cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to
correctly find evidence that it does not. We present computer simulations and a pair of actual
experiments that demonstrate how unacceptably easy it is to accumulate (and report) …
In this article, we accomplish two things. First, we show that despite empirical psychologists’ nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings (≤ .05), flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false-positive rates. In many cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to correctly find evidence that it does not. We present computer simulations and a pair of actual experiments that demonstrate how unacceptably easy it is to accumulate (and report) statistically significant evidence for a false hypothesis. Second, we suggest a simple, low-cost, and straightforwardly effective disclosure-based solution to this problem. The solution involves six concrete requirements for authors and four guidelines for reviewers, all of which impose a minimal burden on the publication process.
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